The fuel shock doing what our business cases couldn't!
Just a short article this week:)
While fuel prices are having a massive impact globally, it's interesting to see that this 'financial shock' has achieved more than some of the public transport business cases we have worked on.
Here is what we are seeing in Oceania...
Overnight Victoria confirmed it's extending fare-free public transport and halving Myki fares through to year-end. Good to see this response.
Tasmania's already gone fully free through July. This makes sense, especially as petrol in Australia is up 27% since the Strait of Hormuz closed.
Across the Tasman, and in our adopted country of New Zealand the debate's landed here as well – Auckland's Mayor has already said he'd take a PT subsidy over a fuel rebate. We feel the outcome is more positive as its showing a focus towards PT as a solution rather than an image of making driving look more affordable.
A few thoughts from where I sit undertaking work across Oceania, Asia and the Middle East:
-
Fare-free isn't a policy – it's a pressure valve. It doesn't necessarily solve a problem but it does buy time. The real test is whether ridership sticks once fares come back. Overseas evidence is mixed: free fares lift trips, but rarely shift committed car users unless service quality moves with them. To be successful you need to look at this measure in conjunction with other policies.
-
Mode shift stayed theoretical until the pump prices changed significantly. Most of the business cases I've touched across Oceania, Asia and the Middle East in the last few years included cheap, predictable fuel. That assumption just changed significantly. Sensitivity ranges need a rebuild – and "do minimum" suddenly looks a lot more expensive.
-
Active modes are the quiet winner. Cycling and e-bike counts across several AU cities are up double-digits since late March. That's the kind of step-change most active mode business cases struggle to deliver in a decade. Interestingly, as a downside we saw they are become a mode of choice for criminals as well as difficult to chase and identify - that's a policy action outside of our remit though!
-
EVs are vindicated, not saved. TCO just improved overnight for every EV owner. But our charging pipelines across NZ and the Pacific are still pacing for 2030 – a demand spike now meets infrastructure we haven't built. In NZ, there is an aggressive growth plan for more infrastructure, and technology is changing by the day.
The next 90 days will quietly rewrite what "resilient transport" means across our region. Watch the jurisdictions that treat this as permission to accelerate – not just a short-term band aid. They are the ones that will make the most difference to the communities through these uncertain times.
Till next time,
Andrew Collings
#PublicTransport #ActiveModes #ElectricVehicles #TransportPolicy #Oceania #Infrastructure #BusinessCase #FuelSecurity #Decarbonisation
Transit Trends · Andrew Collings, KA Advisory. Read and comment on the original on LinkedIn.
Planning a development? Find out in minutes whether you need a transport assessment with KA PreCheck™, or estimate your trips with the free KA Traffic Estimator™.