EVs have advanced a long way since becoming mainstream around a decade ago, especially with their sharp increase in popularity in the early 2020s as battery technology improved.
EVs are now in direct competition with gasoline vehicles, and many consider the new generation of EVs to be what will save the automotive industry - depending on Tariffs of course!
A resurgence of the 1900s...
For those who love history, you will know this isn't the first time that EVs have been in competition. Way back in the 1900s they gained significant popularity, and there was even a functional hybrid car that was developed. Seriously:)
One of the early adopters was the Electric Vehicle Company (EVC) that operated more than 600 electric cabs in New York during the turn of the century.
Love the photo below that shows the new EV with the 'horse it was replacing' behind.
Sadly for EVs, the discovery of the Spindletop Oilfield in 1902 led to a glut of cheap fuel, meaning the poor EV was less competitive.
I often wonder what would have happened to the auto industry if the Spindletop was not discovered until say 10 years later?
Factors that effect EV uptake:
Regardless of the time period, there are three factors that impact EV uptake:
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Technological advances - particularly batteries
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Government incentives - increased subsidies and reduced price
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Environmental awareness - eg reducing Carbon emissions
The problems with first generation EVs - and lithium
The first generation of EV batteries are nearing the end of their lifespan, and there are environmental questions and considerations that must be asked. Companies and governments need to consider the recycling of these batteries, and if as a society, we continue to create the finite resource intensive lithium-ion batteries?
Don't get me wrong - lithium has changed the world of EVs for the better. Lithium-ion batteries have been the dominant battery for EVs over the past 10-12 years. They are reliable, have high energy density and have a some what long-life span. However, continuous mining of metals is required to sustain its production with significant environmental concerns.
As well as proving difficult from a supply chain perspective - hard to produce domestically in many countries - lithium batteries have a range of issues: Thermal runaway, flammable, toxic gases, cost and my personal favorite - temperature sensitivity. If you live in heat or cold, such as Fair Banks, there are operational limitations.
This has led to a range of companies and researches considering alternatives.
What are the current battery alternatives being considered? Quite a few!
1. Solid-State Batteries
Solid-state batteries are one of the most promising alternatives. They offer higher energy density, safer, faster recharging and longer life. Compared to lithium-ion batteries, environmentally they are better with their longer life and potentially easier recycling process.
Companies such as Toyota, QuantumScape, Hyundai and BMW are investing heavily in solid-state technology, with Toyota recently announcing that intend to put solid-state batteries in their vehicles in the next decade.
The challenges? they are currently more complex than lithium-ion batteries to manufacture and more expensive. But that could all change very quickly.
2. Sodium-Ion Batteries
Sodium-ion batteries have gained traction over the last few years as an alternative. Sodium is far more abundant and assumed lower cost than lithium. However, the lower energy density compared to lithium-ion still makes them more expensive per unit of energy stored. Although a recent study by Stanford suggests there are opportunities for sodium to be cost competitive in the 2030s.
Notwithstanding the challenges faced, the battery has gained momentum with Chinese car companies JMEV and Yiwei having launched sodium-ion powered EVS. Battery maker CATL has mass produced hybrid sodium-ion and lithium batteries where it is expected 30 hybrid vehicle models will adopt this technology. Also, BYD is constructing a 30 GWh per year sodium ion battery factory.
European battery maker Northvolt has also unveiled 160 Wh/kg-validated sodium ion battery cells in November 2023.
If the battery can’t compete in the car market, it will definitely provide an alternative for other devices?
3. Lithium-Sulfur Batteries
Lithium-sulfur batteries offer a high theoretical energy density and use sulfur, which is more abundant and environmentally friendly than cobalt or nickel. However, durability has been a challenge although there has been some recent developments which are making the battery move ever closer to commercialization. Though, still a while away for EV vehicles.
4. Hydrogen Fuel Cells
While not a battery in the traditional sense, hydrogen fuel cells are another alternative to powering vehicles. Honda, Hyundai and Toyota offer hydrogen fuel cell vehicles but have yet to be a contender to EVs.
Why?
Its main challenge is availability to fuel cells and cost to run.
Sales for passenger vehicles has also been low, however Toyota is still considering the technology for both buses and trucks.
5. Glass Batteries
These are a solid state battery that use glass as an electrolyte. Research indicates that there is potential for the technology to become a suitable battery in the next three to five years.
The latest advance is a quantum glass battery which South Korean researchers have calculated could cut charging time at home from 10 hours to 3 minutes - super charging station could be 90 seconds!
They are safer, longer lifespan, compact and can withstand high temperatures. Top players in the industry include Samsung, Panasonic and Albemarle.
6. Other Alternatives
New considerations include Graphene batteries, Iron-air batteries and Zinc-based Batteries. All have a range of pros and cons that will change with technology.
Now...What is the most likely battery to replace lithium?
This is difficult to predict.
Warren Buffett is famous for saying with the rise of the automobile and 5000 companies developing cars, the best bet was to short the horse!
And we are no where near as good at predicting future market as the Oracle himself.
In our humble opinion though, and from speaking to several battery experts, we feel it will be sodium-ion batteries.
These batteries are safer and more sustainable, and with technology changes rapid will become more effective in the future.
In an upcoming edition we will focus on recycling and life cycles of EV batteries.
Til next time.
Andrew
p.s. The Bond quote for this week is from the Roger Moore Bond from the movie 'For Your Eyes Only'...'I expect a certain level of...voltage!'.
p.p.s. We have just returned from a few days camped in our RV (sorry it is a diesel) in Mokau - a small town on the west coast of the North Island between Hamilton and New Plymouth. Had a great time and New Zealand certainly turned on the weather for the long weekend.
Photos below.
Transit Trends · Andrew Collings, KA Advisory. Read and comment on the original on LinkedIn.
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